The trusted lidar, at a full price.

We initiate at HOLD «spec.» with a $28.50 fair value. After a 39% fall from June the shares are fair, not cheap: $30.31 still needs 40% growth a year to 2030 — the middle of management's own plan.

Published October 22, 2026, 14 pages.

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Rating

Hold

Fair value

$28.50

Last close

$30.31

Change on the previous close: +2.23% (+$0.66)

Upside to fair value

-6%

from the last close

12-month target

$28.50

$30.31 at the report$28.50 fair value

The US market is closed: the price is the close of October 21, 2026. During the session the quote is delayed up to 15 minutes. The fair value is the report’s, dated October 22, 2026; it does not move with the market. Vort Research provides informational and educational content. It is not personalised financial advice nor a solicitation to invest.

The full report is for Vort+ members.

The rating, the fair value and the reasoning on this page are public. The PDF downloads with Vort+; if you already have it, sign in.

Summary

Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $54.6m, up 56%, on lidar units up 70%, and Rev8, the first lidar that sees in colour, starts volume production this half.
The 49% gross margin included a one-off refund worth about 10 points, c. 39% underlying; one customer was 32% of revenue, and Hesai ships 70 times as many units.
The price needs 40% growth a year to 2030, the middle of management's own plan, against 30% in our base case. Our fair value is $28.50, 6% below the $30.31 price, and the rating is HOLD «spec.».

Scenarios

Bull$58.26
Base$23.66
Bear$8.42

Fair value sensitivity

Fair value per share for every 2030 revenue and EV/EBITDA multiple, the two inputs of the report’s valuation, with the price at the report as the plane through it.

Fair value of OUST by 2030 revenue and EV/EBITDA multipleFair value per share, in US dollars

Source: Vort Research, report of October 22, 2026.

−50%+50%against the price

Hover over the chart to read a case. The surface turns slightly. The arrow keys move the selection.

Sensitivity table, in dollars per share

Fair value per share in US dollars: 2030 revenue across the columns, EV/EBITDA multiple down the rows. The base case is boxed in orange.
× \ Rev.	400M$400M	550M$550M	630M$630M	700M$700M	850M$850M	1B$1B
35×	21.60	27.77	31.06	33.93	40.10	46.27
30×	19.25	24.54	27.36	29.82	35.11	40.39
25×	16.90	21.31	23.66 (base case)	25.71	30.12	34.52
20×	14.55	18.08	19.96	21.60	25.13	28.65
15×	12.21	14.85	16.26	17.49	20.13	22.78

Hover over a cell and the case lights up on the surface.

2030 revenue: $630M
EV/EBITDA: 25×
Fair value: $23.66
Against the price at the report: -21.9%

What the price assumes

2030 revenue implied by the price (EV/EBITDA multiple 25×): $856.57M
EV/EBITDA implied by the price (2030 revenue $630M): 33.99×
Cases above the price: 27% (146 of 549)
Fair value range: $12.21 – $46.27
2030 revenue up $10M from the chosen case: +$0.29
EV/EBITDA up 2.5× from the chosen case: +$1.85

What the marks on the chart mean

Fair value per share across 549 cases. It is green above the price, red below and grey at par.
The price at the date of the report, $30.31
Where fair value equals the price, which is what the market already assumes
Contour lines join cases with the same fair value, one every $5.00
The two slices through the chosen case, at constant EV/EBITDA multiple and at constant 2030 revenue
Base case: 2030 revenue $630M, EV/EBITDA multiple 25×

Fair value per share across 549 cases. It is green above the price, red below and grey at par.
The price at the date of the report, $30.31
Where fair value equals the price, which is what the market already assumes
Contour lines join cases with the same fair value, one every $5.00
The two slices through the chosen case, at constant EV/EBITDA multiple and at constant 2030 revenue
Base case: 2030 revenue $630M, EV/EBITDA multiple 25×

The figures are the report’s own. It is not investment advice.