The largest IPO ever priced a company nobody can value

1. Three businesses on one balance sheet, and only one of them earns money.

   Connectivity — Starlink and Starshield — produced $4.3bn of revenue, up 66%, with 12 million subscribers and $1.66bn of operating income; it is the only segment that earns. AI — the xAI assets acquired in February, Grok, X and the compute estate — produced $2.6bn, up 247%, turned adjusted-EBITDA positive for the first time and consumed $15.8bn of capital in the quarter. Space — Falcon, Dragon and Starship — produced $962m and lost $542m, because Starship development runs through the income statement as research.

2. Capital expenditure is running at four times operating cash flow.

   The quarter's capex was $18.4bn against $1.7bn of operating cash flow; the first half consumed $28.5bn and generated $3.5bn. The difference is funded by the $85.7bn of IPO proceeds and the $25bn inaugural bond, which is why cash went from $24.7bn to $100bn while the company was losing money. At the current burn — roughly $25bn a quarter of capital against $2bn of operating cash — that balance funds about four quarters before the company must slow down, generate materially more cash, or return to the debt market.

3. The float is a calendar, and it points one way until June 2027.

   Only 15% of the shares trade today. The IPO placed under 5% of the company into a market that wanted far more, which is why the stock reached $225.64 four days after listing on no news at all; the 6 August lockup expiry more than doubled the float and the shares had already fallen to $104.83 in anticipation. Roughly 1.5bn shares follow on 8 December, and Musk's 6.4bn-share block unlocks on 12 June 2027, taking the float to about 73%. There is no buyback and no dividend: every dated event between now and then adds shares, and none removes them.

revenue, Q2

+92%

Starlink subscribers, doubled

12m

capex in one quarter

$18.4bn

of the shares trade today

15%

Revenue Q2 2026

$7,814m

↗ in aumento: +92%

Connectivity revenue

$4,291m

↗ in aumento: +66%

AI revenue

$2,561m

↗ in aumento: +247%

Adjusted EBITDA

$3,538m

↗ in aumento: +191%

Net loss

$(541)m

↘ in calo: H1 $(4.8)bn

Capital expenditure

$18,369m

↘ in calo: $15.8bn on AI

Starlink ARPU

$66 / month

↘ in calo: −22% y/y

Cash and securities

$100.0bn

↗ in aumento: net cash $60.6bn

• Growth

  ✓Exceptional

  Consolidated revenue +92%; Starlink subscribers doubled to 12 million; AI revenue +247% with $14.1bn of cloud agreements signed in a quarter and $6.7bn more in the first weeks of the next.

• Balance sheet

  ✓Fortress

  $100bn of cash and securities against $39.4bn of debt, investment-grade paper at a 5.855% weighted coupon and $47.5bn of backlog. No solvency question and no near-term funding question.

• Cash burn

  ×Four to one

  $18.4bn of capex in the quarter against $1.7bn of operating cash flow; two of three segments lose money and the group lost $4.8bn in the first half. The cash funds about four quarters at this pace.

• Valuation

  ×Ahead of the parts

  Our sum of the parts is $1.75tn against a $2.05tn market capitalisation: 20× 2027E revenue and 138× this year's adjusted EBITDA. No current-year multiple supports the price; the entire question is whether the $100bn run rate arrives in 2027.

Moat scores 9.0 out of 10 in our reading — launch capacity, spectrum and a constellation nobody can replicate this decade, reinforced by the 65 MHz of US spectrum that came with the EchoStar licence transfer. The live competitive change is not a rival launcher but Kuiper deploying and terrestrial operators discounting, which is what pulled blended ARPU from $85 to $66 in a year. In AI the group competes with hyperscalers that fund their compute from free cash flow, where SpaceX funds it from an IPO and a bond. Governance is the other structural difference: 82–85% of the voting power sits with one holder, and there is no mechanism by which public shareholders influence capital allocation before 2027, and a limited one after it.

1. 01Starship fails to achieve full reusability on schedule

   Medium probability, very high severity. The option is $250bn of our valuation and a quarter of the gap between our number and the market's; a programme failure removes it and leaves $4bn a year of research with no revenue attached. Flight 14 on 22 September, tower-catch attempts and refurbishment turnaround are the checks.

2. 02AI compute fails to earn its cost of capital

   Medium probability, very high severity. Depreciation was $1.9bn in the quarter and rising; on $23.6bn of half-year spending it approaches $8–10bn a year within eighteen months, and the segment's positive adjusted EBITDA exists only because that depreciation is added back. Capex above $20bn a quarter without a step-up in contracted revenue would move the rating to SELL regardless of price.

3. 03The float unlocks weigh on the price through June 2027

   Certain, high severity. Roughly 1.5bn shares arrive on 8 December, the balance of the pre-IPO investors in the same month, and Musk's 6.4bn-share block on 12 June 2027 with no early-release provision. No buyback offsets any of it. We would not add into the December expiry.

4. 04Starlink ARPU keeps falling as Kuiper deploys

   High probability, high severity. Blended ARPU is $66 against $85 a year ago; at 12 million subscribers that is $9.5bn of annualised consumer revenue where $85 would give $12.2bn. ARPU below $60 with net adds under a million a quarter would mean the growth is being bought rather than won, and a 50-point EBITDA margin instead of 61 takes $150bn off the Connectivity line.

Dove ci posizioniamo

HOLD

HOLD «spec.», blended fair value $143, 12-month target $145, medium conviction. SpaceX owns the best connectivity business built this decade, the launch capability that makes it possible, and an AI estate assembled at a speed no listed company has matched. It is also spending four dollars of capital for every dollar it generates, earns money in one segment of three, and trades at a market capitalisation $300bn above what its operating businesses and a generous Starship option can justify. That gap is the price of the years after 2030, and it is neither absurd nor underwritable — which is precisely the definition of a hold. We would own this company below $110, where the parts cover the price and Starship comes free, and we would trim above $190, where the 2030 bull case has become the base case. The upgrade trigger is specific and near: an orbital Starship flight on 22 September followed by a December quarter at the $100bn run rate, with AI capex flat and Starlink ARPU stable, takes the base case to $175 and the rating to BUY. Four developments would take it to SELL at any price: a Starship failure that removes the vehicle from the 2027 schedule, AI capex above $20bn a quarter without contracted revenue to match, ARPU below $60 with net adds under a million, or a return to the debt market on materially worse terms than 5.855%. Against 79% average realised volatility and a float that triples by June 2027, the correct position is a small one: 1–2.5%, built in three tranches at $134–138, $118–124 and $105–110, and none of it above $175.

• SpaceX — Q2 2026 results release and 8-K, 4 August 2026; IPO prospectus and bond announcements ↗ (si apre in una nuova scheda)
• SEC EDGAR — Space Exploration Technologies Corp. filings ↗ (si apre in una nuova scheda)
• Vort Research — SpaceX initiation of coverage, 16 September 2026